The always interesting and passionate Al Borges, MD posted a comment in response to my post from over a year ago about EMR tire kickers and EMR Adoption:
>>> “I think we’re going to see a tremendous increase in EMR purchases at that point in time.”
Why did you believe this back then, John?
Doctors aren’t stupid- most won’t throw themselves at MU’s $44,000.00 only to be left straddled with a loss from year 1 due to the estimated costs of owning an EHR and doing MU for eternity of $40-60,000.00 per year.
Time has shown that the HIT industry has stagnated, with few doctors now buying into the politically driven HITECH Act. I can’t wait until the next CDC biyearly report…
Here’s my response to Al’s comment:
I still think that statement’s true. There’s going to be a spike in those that purchase EMR software to get the EMR stimulus money. Many were already considering buying it before the stimulus and now a good number of doctors will buy an EMR now that we have the details and timelines for the EMR stimulus.
After this jump in sales, it’s then going to be interesting to watch. The future sales of EMR software are going to be highly dependent on the experience of these initial EMR implementations. If they’re successful and doctors like their EMR and get the EMR stimulus money, then we’ll see more EMR adoption. If they don’t like it or have trouble getting the EMR stimulus money or experience many of the headaches of EMR adoption that we’ve seen before, then I believe it will actually set EMR adoption back long term.
I know which way you lean on that scale. I still think the jury is out, but I am concerned that the later scenario is a distinct possibility.
If the later scenario of an EMR adoption setback occurs, I’m not sure we’ll come out of it until the next generation of “digital natives” finish medical school and achieve prominent enough status in a clinic to push EMR adoption again.
I did misjudge the time it would take to really get the details of the EMR stimulus in place. I thought by February or March of 2010 we’d have known more than we did. Turns out the legislative details took much longer than I expected, but I think we’ll see the EMR adoption spike now that the details are finally in. At least that’s the view I see as far as action and interest in selecting and implementing an EMR.
What do you guys think? How is EMR adoption going and what EMR adoption trends do you see happening in the future?